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一 |
RALEIGH, N.C. – The 2024 election promises to feature several major battlegrounds, but for sheer breadth of competitive contests, North Carolina next year will be hard to beat.
It starts with the presidential race. Recent presidential contests in North Carolina have been close: In 2020, Donald Trump won North Carolina by about 74,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast. Experts expect a competitive race again in 2024.
In addition, a newly empowered GOP majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court is poised to redraw the congressional map to benefit Republicans, producing the possibility of competitive races.
Meanwhile, the parties will fiercely contest both chambers of the legislature, which the GOP currently controls by narrow supermajorities, thanks to a Democrat-to-Republican party-switcher in the state House earlier this year. That party switch, by state Rep. Tricia Cotham, now enables Republicans to enact a strongly conservative agenda over the vetoes of Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper if they wish.
Cooper, for his part, is term-limited, teeing up a knock-down, drag-out contest to succeed him, likely between Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.
And that isn’t it for falling dominoes: The decisions by Stein and Robinson to seek the governorship leave their old offices of attorney general and lieutenant governor up for grabs in 2024, joining the GOP-held offices of state treasurer and labor commissioner as open-seat contests. The Democratic-held offices of secretary of state and auditor and the Republican-held offices of schools superintendent, insurance commissioner and agriculture commissioner will also be contested in 2024, with varying degrees of competitiveness.
In other words, in 2024, North Carolina will be one of the centers of the political universe – important in part because it’s a uniquely competitive state.
“There’s no telling who will win in 2024, but I’d bet half-court tickets to the UNC-Duke game that it will be close and North Carolina will retain its title as the definition of ‘purple,’” says Chris Cooper, a Western Carolina University political scientist (and no relation to the governor).
In recent years, North Carolina has mostly hosted close statewide races. During the 2020 and 2022 elections, North Carolina held 16 federal and state races for statewide office – and no candidate in any of them won more than 54% of the vote.
In addition, unlike most states in this highly polarized age, North Carolina has elected a thorough mix of Democrats and Republicans to statewide executive offices, which suggests that voters in the state – or at least a crucial subset of them – are willing to split their tickets.
The Republicans have done best in Senate and presidential contests. In those races, the GOP has kept a consistent – if modest – edge. It’s been a decade and a half since a Democrat has won one of those races. The last to win were Kay Hagan for Senate and Barack Obama for president, both of them way back in 2008.
“North Carolina has proved to be a purple state, but not necessarily a swing state,” says Cooper, the political scientist. “The statewide outcomes have been among the closest in the country, but Republicans have found themselves just on the winning side of the razor’s edge for presidential and Senate elections.”
The most intriguing contrast one can draw for North Carolina is with one of its neighbors to the south. Could North Carolina follow Georgia’s path in voting blue for Senate and presidential elections?
For the better part of two decades, Georgia, like North Carolina, had voted consistently Republican in key federal races – until 2020. That year, Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock won uphill, and narrow, victories for Senate seats, while Biden was winning the state in the presidential race. In 2022, Warnock won another close election to a full six-year term.
In an era when urban areas have grown bluer by the year, Georgia has seen its major metro area – Atlanta – steadily move toward the Democrats. In 2000, metro Atlanta backed Republican George W. Bush by 4 points. By 2020, the Atlanta metro area backed Biden by 28 points, a whopping 32-point shift.
North Carolina’s biggest metro areas saw a similar pattern.
North Carolina’s Raleigh-Durham metro area backed Gore in 2000 by less than a point. Two decades later, Biden won it by 26 points. The state’s most populous county, Wake County (which includes Raleigh and Cary), favored Bush in 2000 by about a point, but backed Biden by 27.
Similar patterns held in the North Carolina portion of the Charlotte metro area. In 2000, Bush won the Charlotte metro area by 18 points. But by 2020, Biden won the region by 4 points – a 22-point shift. The state’s second largest county, Mecklenburg County (which includes Charlotte), voted for Bush by almost 3 points in 2000 but Biden by a massive 36 points.
Such shifts helped the Democrats narrow the statewide gap substantially in North Carolina. In 2000, Bush defeated Gore statewide by 13 points, whereas Trump defeated Biden by about 1 point.
But these shifts weren’t enough to tip the state to the Democrats in the presidential race. A big reason why: Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte don’t have as large a footprint in North Carolina as metro Atlanta does in Georgia.
In 2020, Atlanta’s metro counties accounted for just shy of a majority of votes cast in Georgia – 49%, up from 46% in 2000. So even as outlying Georgia was growing redder – backing Bush by 19 and Trump by 26 – Democrats were able to turn a 12-point statewide loss by Al Gore in 2000 into a narrow victory for Biden in 2020.
By contrast, the Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte metro areas account for a minority of the state’s voters, growing from 36% of the votes cast in 2000 to 42% in 2020.
In other words, in North Carolina, the Democratic gains in the two big metro areas were nearly canceled out by the large and growing GOP margins elsewhere.
“North Carolina has the second most rural voters in the country after Texas, so running up the score in Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte won't get you victory the way Atlanta does in Georgia,” says Cooper, the political scientist. “There’s been a massive Republican gain in rural areas”
Over the next quarter-century, Wake and Mecklenburg counties are projected to grow dramatically faster in population than most other North Carolina counties, according to calculations by the state’s Board of Science, Technology & Innovation. Over the long term, this could make the state bluer.
But for now, North Carolina’s political balance of power belongs in the hands of “countrypolitan" counties, a term coined by Mac McCorkle, a longtime North Carolina consultant who now teaches at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy, and Rachel Salzberg.
These 28 counties sit within the economic and commuting orbit of North Carolina’s metro areas, but they’re located on the outlying edge, and they lack the racial diversity, college attainment levels and higher incomes that increasingly align with voting Democratic.
By McCorkle’s and Salzberg’s calculations, “countrypolitan” counties backed Trump in 2020 by a gaping 63%-36% margin, and collectively they provided Trump with about 50% more raw votes than North Carolina’s 50 most rural counties did.
That’s a major reason why Republicans have remained modestly ahead in North Carolina, at least in high-profile federal races, experts say.
To do well in North Carolina, says Western Carolina’s Cooper, “Democrats don’t have to win the rural vote, but they have to avoid getting pummeled.”
This is the goal of Anderson Clayton, the newly installed head of the state Democratic Party. At 25, Clayton, an Appalachian State University graduate, is the youngest state Democratic chairman in the nation.
“One of the things that I think that I learned from being on national campaigns is that a lot of times the national party is not looking at rural places like they should be,” Anderson told an audience in Union County, according to The Washington Post. “They’re looking at it as a place of a problem. And for me, I got really frustrated with that. It was part of the thing that called me home.”
This advice doesn’t just hold for presidential and Senate races, political observers say. It will also help determine whether Democrats can stay competitive in North Carolina’s state-level offices or whether Republicans start running away with them.
Since the dawn of the 20th century, North Carolina has elected only three Republican governors – one for a term in the 1970s, one for two terms in the 1980s and 1990s, and one for a term in the 2010s.
Historically, the successful Democratic model for winning North Carolina gubernatorial races has been to nominate a candidate who can win in metro areas but who hails from less populated regions of the state and connects with voters there. A good example is the current governor, who helped his family farm tobacco while growing up.
But the pool of potential Democratic candidates from more rural areas “has dried up,” says Rob Schofield, the editor of the online publication NC Newsline. Lining up Democratic candidates to run everywhere, as Clayton seeks to do, will be challenging.
“That counts on people running even if they know they will lose and be sacrificed, which is a hard sell,” says Ferrel Guillory, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of North Carolina.
In any case, the likely 2024 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Stein, is set to break his party’s historic mold. Stein, a former legislator who has won two terms as attorney general, grew up in Chapel Hill, home of the University of North Carolina, and earned his undergraduate degree from Dartmouth and a law degree and a master’s of public affairs from Harvard.
Meanwhile, Stein’s potential Republican opponent also represents departure from past Republican gubernatorial candidates, who have tended to be economic conservatives from metro areas: Robinson is an outspoken social conservative who has flirted with conspiracy theories, ranging from the moon landing to crisis actors in school shootings.
Robinson doesn’t have a clear path to the nomination. In the primary, he faces state Treasurer Dale Folwell, former Congressman Mark Walker, former legislator Andy Wells and retired health executive Jesse Thomas. But he’s considered the front-runner, due to a strong core of support in a state where, by law, 30% plus one is enough to win a primary.
If the race comes down to Stein and Robinson, as conventional wisdom suggests, “it will be an epic and titanic battle that will be bitterly divided and deeply polarizing,” says Michael Bitzer, a professor of politics and history at Catawba College. “Probably the most expensive gubernatorial race in the nation for next year, and it may break state records.”
One unknown for now is how the Republican supermajority flexes its expanded policy muscle.
After years of opposition, the GOP legislature in March passed legislation to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, and Cooper quickly signed it. But after Cotham’s party switch produced a supermajority, Republicans sidestepped Cooper’s veto and passed a 12-week abortion ban, which is being challenged in court.
Passage of the abortion ban could energize Democrats, as it has in other purple and even red states. This could be exacerbated if the GOP passes other laws popular with the party’s socially conservative base but unpopular among moderates. Robinson’s candidacy, too, risks scaring off Republican moderates.
“When the Republicans moved to find some way to accept Medicaid expansion, to me that reflected that, wow, these guys may be understanding their rough edges,” McCorkle says in an interview. “Then the abortion law happens and then Robinson happens. That could explode things.”
John Hood, president of the John William Pope Foundation, a grant-making foundation, says he believes Republicans in the legislature are “realistic.”
“They recognize that either Stein will be governor or Robinson will be governor, and they don’t trust either,” Hood says.
Ultimately, the noise from the presidential race, especially if Trump is the GOP nominee, could drown out everything else down-ballot.
“The national networks and media may be so consumed by the presidential election that state issues may not affect the public’s mind,” Guillory says.
。 1月8日晚,央视综合频道播出电视专题片《反腐为了人民》第四集《以案促改促治》，披露了公共资源交易中内鬼、中标企业以及评审专家围串标的腐败现象。其中利益网盘根错节，330个涉案项目700多名涉案人。有的评审专家甚至发出围猎暗号，收受好处后现场违规沟通。（来源：央视新闻）正如涉案评审专家王志勇在片中说：“按照金钱的多少，给不应该中标的企业让它中标了，有失于公平公正了。”（来源：央视新闻）投标企业涉案人马国学说：“在投标过程当中，贿赂专家、贿赂评委、贿赂甲方。”（来源：央视新闻）内蒙古自治区赤峰市公共资源交易中心原工作人员鲁超然忏悔道：“我很后悔，后悔被钱洗脑。”给多少钱就打多少分，评审专家收受好处竟现场违规沟通这场力度空前的整治最初来源于群众举报。群众反映在某项目招投标过程中，几名评审专家收受了中标企业好处，甚至在评标现场明目张胆地违规沟通。
二 | （来源：央视新闻）赤峰市纪委监委调取当天评标现场录像，发现果然存在举报反映的情况。顺着这一线索摸查下去，发现参与这场评标的6名评审专家在多个项目中都曾收取好处费，这些项目又牵出了其他收受好处的评审专家，调查范围不断扩大。
三 | 从这些专家交代的情况看，不少人已经把评标当成了赚钱的营生，专业标准完全被抛在了脑后。（来源：央视新闻）涉案评审专家王瑞说：“就是流于形式去招投标。
四 | 其实就是评委专家们基本上就是带着意向去评标，标书这一块要说认认真真看的，我觉得几乎是不太有。”（来源：央视新闻）涉案评审专家王志勇说：“基本上也都没咋看，按照企业给的好处费的多少给打高分。”王瑞、王志勇在违纪违法的评审专家中非常典型，他们都身兼多重角色，既是水利部门的公职人员，又具备评审专家资格，还充当起了在当地俗称“黄牛”的掮客角色，不仅自己收好处费违规评标，还帮助投标企业串联其他评委，从中再抽取一部分好处。
五 | （来源：央视新闻）而评审专家只是该案腐败链条上的一环，顺着链条摸查，上下游各方角色都参与其中。通过陆续掌握的情况研判，赤峰市公共资源招投标领域乱象严重，给全市营商环境和政治生态造成的危害不容小视，亟须进行系统治理。（来源：央视新闻）利益网盘根错节，330个涉案项目700多名涉案人（来源：央视新闻）赤峰市纪委监委调集全市170余名纪检监察干部，组成6个审查调查组，全面起底、深挖彻查相关问题线索，将调查对象由评审专家、中标企业等群体向招标单位、财政评审单位延伸，起出了一张盘根错节的利益网，涉及330个涉案项目，处理700多名涉案人，其中公职人员135名。（来源：央视新闻）内蒙古自治区赤峰市翁牛特旗农牧局原股长季永清说：“有了这权力，特别有风险。这一块可能要出问题，我也知道。”季永清直接负责农田水利项目招投标，也具有评审专家资格，自然也是投标企业围猎的对象。（来源：央视新闻）起初，他是作为评委收受企业一两万元，渐渐地，他开始不满足于只赚小钱。当他供职的农牧局有项目要招标时，他感到机会来了，于是和一家企业相互串通，利用职权帮其中标，又要求该企业将部分工程分包给他施工。他并没有施工队，而是找各乡镇的施工站，共同接活以谋取更大利益。（来源：央视新闻）内蒙古自治区赤峰市监委委员考晓峰说：“甲方的公职人员，也掺和到这个事里面去了，那还存在什么监管。
六 | ”评标前40分钟内违规沟通，“今天阳光明媚”竟是暗号按照相关制度规定，赤峰市公共资源交易中心统一为全市项目提供招投标服务，交易中心评标系统在评标前40分钟随机抽取评审专家名单，以防有人提前围猎专家。（来源：央视新闻）然而，别有用心的人仍然能在这短短40分钟里相互串通。有的评审专家一接到通知，立即就在相关微信群里发出暗号，示意可以来找他做工作了。
七 | （来源：央视新闻）据内蒙古自治区赤峰市纪委监委工作人员张智超介绍，比如说评审专家被抽中了，没有人找他，他就会在群里发一句说“今天阳光明媚”，暗语也是五花八门，但是他们之间是互相理解的，现场40分钟之内他就把电话打过去了。政府设立公共资源交易中心，目的是打造专业化、规范化的招标平台，加强对评标过程的监管。然而调查发现，一段时间以来赤峰市公共资源交易中心对评标现场乱象失察失管，更有甚者，还有个别工作人员充当内鬼，谋取私利。
八 | 2024年初，某项目评审专家名单一出，交易中心职工鲁超然立即用短信发送给了一家招标代理公司。该公司代理的企业顺利中标后，给鲁超然的好处费高达35万元。
九 | （来源：央视新闻）市委下定决心，要把这个盖子给它揭开当时，赤峰市公共资源招投标领域出现劣币驱逐良币乱象，让想要公正招标的甲方单位、想要公平竞争的守法企业、想要公正评标的专家评委深感无奈。有招标单位代表说：“打比方，就跟给姑娘找个女婿一样，特别想找个好人，找个好的施工单位。但是这种乱象，可能就找来的这个企业啥样的都有了，危害其实太大了。
十 | ”施工企业代表认为，这种不正常的竞争，导致工程质量、工程进度都存在瑕疵，这对老百姓肯定是有影响的。有评审专家也说：“因为他们这些人不是正道，好的企业评不上，这种现象要不根治，这市场好不了，早晚出事。
十一 | ”（来源：央视新闻）据内蒙古自治区赤峰市监委委员考晓峰介绍，市委下定决心，这个盖子要把它揭开。营商环境一坏，就没有人到你这儿投资，经济发展肯定是受影响的。通过查处这一系列的案件，通过一个领域上的治理，就想把这个毒瘤给它拔出来。惩处只是手段，揭盖子的目的是更好地推动治理。赤峰市坚持以办案促整改，深入分析问题背后的制度缺失及监管漏洞，推动相关部门制定完善《赤峰市本级公共资源交易管理办法》等75项制度性文件，进一步加强对公共资源领域权力运行的监督制约，健全完善靠制度管权、管事、管人的长效机制。极目新闻综合央视新闻、中央纪委国家监委网站、政事儿（来源：极目新闻）更多精彩资讯请在应用市场下载“极目新闻”客户端，未经授权请勿转载，欢迎提供新闻线索，一经采纳即付报酬。24小时报料热线027-86777777。
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